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Weakens, 1yr MLF & Jan-Feb Activity Data On Tap

CNH

USD/CNH currently tracks near highs from Tuesday session, last above 6.8800 level. CNH lost 0.4% for the session, unwinding close to a third of Monday's rally. We stopped short of weakening through 6.8900 post the US CPI print though. For the NEER we eased -0.22% to 126.31 (J.P. Morgan index), moving the index off recent highs.

  • The main focus today, from a data standpoint, is the 1 yr MLF rate outcome, no change is expected at 2.75%, while volumes are forecast at 325bn yuan.
  • We also have the Jan-Feb activity data, with IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment and the jobless rate all on tap. Activity momentum is generally expected to improve as the re-opening gained traction (see this link for more details).
  • Local bond markets could also be in focus, given Reuters reports from Tuesday that regulators have asked money market brokers to suspend their data feeds due to data security concerns (see this link for more details).
  • In the equity space, the Golden Dragon index recovered further, +0.62% (following Monday's 1.14% rise), but the index level remains sub the simple 200-day MA. Onshore equities also remain below this resistance point, the CSI 300 losing 0.6% yesterday.
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USD/CNH currently tracks near highs from Tuesday session, last above 6.8800 level. CNH lost 0.4% for the session, unwinding close to a third of Monday's rally. We stopped short of weakening through 6.8900 post the US CPI print though. For the NEER we eased -0.22% to 126.31 (J.P. Morgan index), moving the index off recent highs.

  • The main focus today, from a data standpoint, is the 1 yr MLF rate outcome, no change is expected at 2.75%, while volumes are forecast at 325bn yuan.
  • We also have the Jan-Feb activity data, with IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment and the jobless rate all on tap. Activity momentum is generally expected to improve as the re-opening gained traction (see this link for more details).
  • Local bond markets could also be in focus, given Reuters reports from Tuesday that regulators have asked money market brokers to suspend their data feeds due to data security concerns (see this link for more details).
  • In the equity space, the Golden Dragon index recovered further, +0.62% (following Monday's 1.14% rise), but the index level remains sub the simple 200-day MA. Onshore equities also remain below this resistance point, the CSI 300 losing 0.6% yesterday.