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Weaker Activity Data May Bolster BanRep Doves Easing Case

COLOMBIA
  • Weaker than expected economic activity data will likely bolster the case for the initiation of the easing cycle at this month’s policy decision on October 31. This will likely be spearheaded by Finance Minister Bonilla, who very likely voted for a 25bp cut at the previous meeting.
  • The two dissenting members in September “expressed concern that an amplification of the economic slowdown could threaten household income and undermine the progress in reducing poverty achieved in 2022”.
  • However, it is worth noting that expectations remain for a hold this month, with yesterday’s release of the central bank’s economist survey forecasting the first rate cut to be a 50bp move in December following the annual rate of inflation remaining close to 11.00% in data released earlier this month.
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