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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessWeaker, At Session Cheaps, Awaits US Payrolls
ACGBs sit weaker (YM -7.0 & XM -3.0), near Sydney session cheaps as local participants focus on the possible implications of the Australian Fair Work Commission’s decision to lift the minimum wage by 5.75%.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-7bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve 5bp flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential +7bp at +3bp.
- Swap rates are 3-6bp higher.
- The bills strip bear flattens with pricing is -9 to -4.
- The local calendar is heavy next with the focal point likely to be RBA Policy Decision on Tuesday. BBG consensus is expecting a no-change outcome although it is not unanimous.
- While not expecting a hike until August, ANZ today announced an increase in its terminal cash rate forecast to 4.35% from 4.10% (link). They join several other sell-side economists who have turned more hawkish in terms of the RBA outlook (link).
- RBA dated OIS is 4-10bp firmer across meetings with a 56% chance of a 25bp hike in June priced. It was a 40% chance at the opening of trade today.
- On Monday, the local calendar is scheduled to release Judo Bank PMIs (May F), MI Inflation Gauge (May), Inventories (Q1), Company Profits (Q1) and ANZ Job Ads (May).
- The AOFM announced plans to sell A$700mn of the 3.75% 21 May 2034 bond on Wednesday.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.