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Weaker But Bracing For Weak Feb Income/Spending Data

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys are touching session lows, with 10-Yrs underperforming on the curve amid bear steepening.

  • Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) down 13/32 at 131-23.5 (L: 131-23.5 / H: 132-04), giving up Weds and Thurs's gains. 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.1348%, 5-Yr is up 1.8bps at 0.8524%, 10-Yr is up 3.6bps at 1.6689%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 2.386%.
  • Risk appetite has been positive overnight, with core FI weakening - upbeat vaccine news from Thurs (EU not banning exports, Pres Biden doubling vaccination targets) seen driving. Stock futures higher but off session's best levels; conversely USD weaker but off lows.
  • Feb personal income/spending data at 0830ET is the calendar highlight, including the PCE price deflator reading. A sharp decline in both income and spending is expected, with consensus reflecting the fact that Feb was between months with stimulus checks (in Jan and Mar).
  • This comes alongside trade balance and retail inventories at the same time. UMich sentiment at 1000ET is final reading.
  • Dallas Fed's Kaplan (the foremost current FOMC hawk) appears on Bloomberg TV at 0830ET.
  • Other than that, neither supply nor NY Fed operational purchases.
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