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Weaker Oil Markets Weigh on RUB, Focus Shifts to US-Russia Relations

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB gaps higher at the open, with softer oil markets weighing on RUB in early trading.
  • Oil came under pressure in the Asia session as concerns about fuel demand stemming from the spread of the Delta variant and flooding in China offset expectations for tight supply through the rest of the year.
  • Key support seen at $72.60 in brent.
  • USD/RUB traded choppily following last week's CBR decisions to raise rates +100bp, as markets digested a somewhat more hawkish than expected presser from Nabiullina – stressing lofty expectations, overheating risks and more possible hikes in the pipeline for the next meeting.
  • While the Governor nodded to moderating inflation factors, she said it was far too early to slow down its current trajectory – justifying the larger step to +100bp.
  • While the next step will be largely dependent on July's inflation print, the majority of the sell-side now see another +50bp hike as highly likely in September.
  • Beyond the CBR, the focus shifts to US-Russia strategic stability talks (28 July), where relations are coming off a low base – creating scope for an improvement if both sides can keep relations amicable for a "constructive" outcome.
  • USD/RUB remains capped by the 100dma at 74.2580 ahead of unemployment, retail sales & weekly CPI numbers this week.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.7442, Sup2: 73.5432, Res1: 74.0828, Res2: 74.2486
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage

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