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Weaker With US Tsys Ahead Of PPI & Retail Sales Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM -10.5) are weaker in early Sydney trade. The combination of strong US data and speculation of a tweak on policy from the BoJ today have seen US tsy yields much higher, the 10-year rate at 4%.

  • Q2 GDP growth printed an annualised rate of +2.4% (+1.8% est). However, PCE deflators were weaker than expected, with the core rate down to an annualised 3.8%, the lowest increase in over two years.
  • The ECB delivered the well-anticipated 25bp hike that took the deposit rate to 3.75%, a record high for the Euro area.
  • Cash ACGBs opened 8-11bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -6bp at +3bp.
  • Swap rates are 8-10bp higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip bear steepens, with pricing -2 to -9.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-6bp firmer beyond October, with Jun'24 leading.
  • Today the local calendar sees Q2 PPI and June Retail Sales data. The market will be keen for an update on how households are dealing with interest rate and cost-of-living pressures. After this week’s Q2 CPI undershoot, PPI data will also be eyed.
  • The BoJ Policy Decision will be watched later today.
  • Today the AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of 4.50% April-33 bond.
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