Weaker Yen Trend Curbs Asian FX Rally

USD/Asia pairs are mostly lower, but away from session lows for most pairs. A rebound in USD/JPY hasn't helped NEA FX, with USD/CNH rebounding back to 7.1500 from earlier lows. China PMIs were mixed, but further stimulus hopes have helped equities. Tomorrow, we get the Caixin manufacturing PMI for China, and South Korea trade data for July. Regional PMIs will also print, as well as Indonesia CPI.

• USD/CNH is away from earlier session lows. The pair dipped to 7.1329, before rebounding. CNH gains were propelled by stronger equity gains amid stimulus hopes. Official PMI data was mixed, but the detail in the manufacturing sector was less downbeat. Equities are away from highs, which has likely helped curb CNH gains. USD/CNH was last near 7.1500, only down slightly from closing levels in NY last Friday. A rebound in USD/JPY back towards 142.00 has also weighed. Further consumption support measures are expected to be announced later today.
• USD/THB has recovered further ground today. The pair last in the 34.25/30 region. Lows from late last week near 34.00 held and this region, and back near 33.75, have been recent support points. All of the key EMAs remain further north, with the 20-day the closest at 34.52. The main macro focus this week will be on the BoT decision on Wednesday, with +25bps expected, which is a fairly broad based consensus. Later today we do get June BOP and trade data. On the political front, the new PM vote may take place this Friday, although that will depend on how the Constitutional Court rules on the petition for the rejected renomination of MFP PM candidate Pita. If it accepts the petition the PM vote on Friday will not take place.
• USD/HKD spot has drifted slightly higher today, the pair back above the 7.8000 level. Recent lows rest around the 7.7950 level, with last week's move sub this level the first time the pair had breached the mid-point of the HKMA peg band this year. Still, we remain some distance away from early December 2022 lows near 7.7600. HKMA Executive Arthur Yuen stated that higher rates may prevail for some time, in a warning to local investors late last week. He also stated HKD was receiving support from dividend related flows. Later today, Q2 GDP is out. The market expects y/y growth at 3.5%, versus 2.7% prior. Money supply and June Budget Balance figures are also due out some time today.
• USD/INR firmed above the 20-Day EMA on Friday as broader USD trends dominated flows. The Rupee is little changed in early dealing, and last prints at 82.2150/2300. On Thursday there was a total of $152.43mn in net outflows of Indian equities by foreign investors, trimming last week's inflows to $361mn. Due today is the June Fiscal Deficit and Eight Infrastructure Industries.
• The Ringgit is marginally firmer on Monday, USD/MYR is down ~0.5% and last prints at 4.5280/5320. The pair remains well within recent ranges, since the US CPI print mid month a 4.52/58 range has persisted for the most part. S&P Global Mfg PMI for July is the only data of note this week, there is no estimate and the prior read was 47.7.
• USD/SGD was marginally firmer on Friday as broader USD trends dominated flows, with gains remaining capped at the 20-Day EMA ($1.3330). On Monday the pair is unchanged from opening levels and sits at $1.3310/15. The highlight of the week is July S&P Global PMI, which is due on Thursday. Friday's Retail Sales print for June rounds off the docket.