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Weakness Pervades; USD Index on Cusp of Golden Cross

GBPUSD
  • GBP/USD's corrective pullback persists, with the pair showing below the 200-dma today and extending the pullback following the dovish interpretation of the BoE decision - over 80bps of rate cuts are now priced for this calendar year, up from ~60bps at the beginning of the week.
  • Outside of GBP, USD strength is notable - the USD Index today has cleared to weekly highs and is narrowing the gap with the mid-February highs. Notably, the USD Index is close to forming a 'golden cross' formation in the DMA space (50-dma rises above the 200-dma - see chart below) signalling positive S/T momentum. A golden cross was last formed in Sept last year, presaging a further 2% rally to cycle highs in October.
  • Next support for GBP/USD undercuts at 1.2536, the Feb14 Low and the bear trigger at 1.2519.

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