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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • However, it is the new strain of Covid-19 that is particularly concerning – it has become the dominant strain throughout London and South East England. The new strain is through to be around 70% more contagious than the original strain and is expected to raise R by 0.4-0.9 points. Note that R has never really got below 0.6 in the UK, even during the first multi-month lockdown. This means that even in an optimistic scenario, the R number would not have been substantially below 1 during the most stringent restrictions, including school closures, that we have seen, even though the first lockdown was associated with warm weather. A number of European countries have temporarily closed their borders with the UK, including France, which will disrupt already stretched trade channels ahead of the Brexit deadline. The hopes with the new strain are that the vaccine continues to be as effective and that it is no more serious if caught (other than being more contagious).
  • On the data front this week we will receive the final print of Q3 GDP (including the first print of the current account balance) and an update on public sector finances for November. Both are due for release on Tuesday. There are no scheduled appearances from MPC members this week.
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