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  • Ahead of the MPC decision we do have updated public finance data for May on Tuesday (which will give us more of an indication of how spending is progressing as the lockdown measures are gradually pared back) and PMI data on Wednesday. The PMI data for June will be interesting to watch to see if there is any real hit to sentiment from the latest delay in the lockdown roadmap.
  • Just a final note on Covid case data. The market seemed to react a bit to the daily case numbers rising back into 5 figures late last week. However, we note that looking at the 7-day moving average, the growth rate of cases has actually fallen to its lowest level in a couple of weeks. In terms of vaccination data, the UK has now given first doses to over 80% of adults and second doses to almost 60% of adults. A number of media reports have suggested this morning that the government will not want to ease restrictions for the final stage of the roadmap out of lockdown until around 70% of adults have received both doses. The encouraging news is that it looks very likely that level will be achieved by the expected reopening date of 19 July (or potentially achieved 7-10 days earlier based on the pace of current second doses).