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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • Friday will see the release of July activity data. Consensus is looking for a 0.5%M/M print (which would be the slowest pace of growth since the lockdown-induced contraction in January). Industrial production and construction are both expected to pare about half of June's losses while the service sector is expected to slow to 0.6%M/M (from 1.5% in June). The market will pay attention to the data but will likely be looking to next week's inflation and labour market data for more conviction.
  • Political events will also be closely monitored with the media widely reporting that an increase in national insurance contributions (effectively an income/payroll tax) will be used to pay for a reform of social care alongside an end to the pensions triple lock (which links pension increases to the higher of 2.5%, average earnings or inflation). These decisions are politically controversial as the Conservative manifesto included pledges to keep national insurance at its current rate and to maintain the pensions triple lock.
  • Outside of the domestic matters, the ECB meeting will be closely watched this week and is likely to drive general market sentiment towards the end of the week.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 | tim.davis@marketnews.com

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