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Week Ahead

UK
  • There has been another significant repricing of UK rate expectations with SONIA futures from the Dec-22 contract and further out hitting record lows this morning. Markets continue to see around 35bp priced for May with 144bp priced for the remainder of 2022 (up from 126bp at the beginning of last week, an 18bp move higher). Indeed, until the November MPC meeting there is an average of more than one 25bp hike for each meeting.
  • After the Spring Statement and CPI prints last week, the upcoming week has a quieter calendar with a speech by
  • Governor Bailey at midday BST today the highlight. He is due to speak with Guntram Wolff, Bruegel with the topic 'Macroeconomic and financial stability in changing times'. The only other MPC member scheduled to make an appearance will be Broadbent on Wednesday when he speech at NIESR entitled ‘The MPC at 25’. Money supply and mortgage data are due for release with the data highlight the final release of Q4 GDP on Thursday and final print of the manufacturing PMI on Friday.
  • Elsewhere, the DMO will hold its quarterly consultation meeting with investors and GEMMs this afternoon, with the Minutes due for release tomorrow ahead of the full publication of the April to June issuance scheduled on Thursday 31 March at 7:30BST. We have set out our expectations in UK Issuance Deep Dive: Lower Remit and FQ1 Expectations. See the full document here.

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