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Week Ahead (3/3)

UK
  • Against this backdrop, we will hear from BOE's Mann (fireside chat at Barclays on Tuesday – but we have already heard from her at JP Morgan last week), Bailey (but on insurance on Wednesday) and Saunders. Saunders' speech on Friday is at a BOE hosted event entitled "The outlook for Inflation and Monetary Policy." Saunders is a known hawk who voted to end QE early and for a rate rise in November. Hawkish comments from him would therefore be expected. More notable for the market would be if he appeared concerned enough about the Omicron variant to vote for rates to remain on hold in December.
  • Last week we heard from the Bank's Chief Economist Huw Pill who sounded like he was leaning towards a hike in December, noting that "the burden of proof has now clearly shifted" and that he was now looking for challenges to the view that the Bank should hike in the coming months rather than challenging the view the Bank should stay on hold.
  • On the data front this month, we will receive final PMI prints (but these will not take into account any Omicron developments and are likely to be largely ignored) as well as Nationwide house price data.
  • We will also receive the gilt operations calendar for January to March on Tuesday at 7:30GMT.
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