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Week Ahead: A big week for data

UK
  • The week ahead will see a number of key UK data releases with labour market data, unemployment and retail sales all due for release.
  • Tuesday will see labour market data released, with average hourly earnings the most notable release. The MPC has been placing a bit less emphasis on this recently but it still has the potential to move markets. The rest of the labour market report will see the experimental unemployment numbers published again ahead of the ONS’s transition to the full new labour report by March.
  • The highlight of the UK data week will be inflation data on Wednesday. The Bank of England’s MPR forecast headline CPI to fall to 4.76%Y/Y in October while the consensus looks for a slightly larger fall to 4.7%Y/Y (from 6.65%Y/Y in September). This large move lower from September can largely be attributed to the introduction of negative base effects in consumer energy prices.
  • In terms of other categories, the Bank of England expects services inflation to remain broadly at 6.9%Y/Y until the end of the year (6.89%Y/Y for October). In general this persistence in services inflation seems to be in contrast to expectations on the sellside for a gradual fall into year-end. Core goods prices are also expected to fall, petrol prices are expected to have less of a negative contribution to the headline inflation rate while food price inflation is also expected to continue to fall (albeit it’s still expected to remain around 10%Y/Y).
  • Retail sales data on Friday also has market-moving potential but is quite a volatile series so harder to get an accurate read from.
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