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Week Ahead: Fiscal and gilts

UK
  • The week ahead could see the date of the Fiscal Statement announced. Parliament will not sit until after Her Majesty, the Queen’s funeral on Monday 19 September (a date that has also now been confirmed as a Bank Holiday). Parliament is also due for a recess for the party conference season, rising on Thursday 22 September, before returning on Monday 17 October.
  • Given that the Fiscal Statement was intended to be held in September, we assume the government will still be hoping to hold it on either Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday next week. This could potentially see the Fiscal Statement and rescheduled MPC meeting both occurring on the same day. The Fiscal Statement will be accompanied by an upwardly revised gilt remit.
  • Regarding near-term gilt issuance, we think there is a chance that if the Fiscal Statement is held next week that the syndicated reopening of the 1.50% Jul-53 Green Gilt may be delayed until the following week (W/C 26 September). The only issuance scheduled for the W/C 26 September is a reopening of the 10-year linker. There are no auctions scheduled for this week or next week (which has long been planned in the calendar).
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