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Week Ahead: Focus On Bank Of Korea And CPI Data

ASIA

This week the main economic focus in non-Japan Asia should be the Bank of Korea meeting. There are also a number of Q3 GDP and October CPI prints.

  • On Monday, Thailand’s Q3 GDP prints and is expected to rise 0.8% q/q and 4.5% y/y up from Q2’s 0.7% q/q and 2.5% y/y. There is quite a range of estimates from -1% to +2% q/q.
  • Singapore publishes its Q3 GDP report on Wednesday and it is expected to be in line with Q2 rising 1.5% q/q and 4.3% y/y. Bloomberg forecasts are in a tight range around this point at 1.3% to 1.7% q/q. CPI data for October also prints and should moderate to 7% y/y from 7.5% in September, as energy prices ease, but core is projected to be steady at 5.3%.
  • Thailand publishes October customs trade data on Wednesday, which is expected to show a widening in the trade deficit to US$1.4bn from US$0.85bn last month. Annual rates in both export and import growth should slow.
  • The Bank of Korea meets on Thursday and is widely expected to increase rates by a smaller 25bp to 3.25%, after 50bp at the last meeting, which would bring it in line with the Fed funds. Only one analyst out of the 15 surveyed by Bloomberg expects a different outcome with a 50bp move.
  • On Friday, Malaysian CPI data for October is published and is expected to moderate to 3.9% y/y from 4.5% last month.

    Cumulative policy rate changes in Asia (bp)

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This week the main economic focus in non-Japan Asia should be the Bank of Korea meeting. There are also a number of Q3 GDP and October CPI prints.

  • On Monday, Thailand’s Q3 GDP prints and is expected to rise 0.8% q/q and 4.5% y/y up from Q2’s 0.7% q/q and 2.5% y/y. There is quite a range of estimates from -1% to +2% q/q.
  • Singapore publishes its Q3 GDP report on Wednesday and it is expected to be in line with Q2 rising 1.5% q/q and 4.3% y/y. Bloomberg forecasts are in a tight range around this point at 1.3% to 1.7% q/q. CPI data for October also prints and should moderate to 7% y/y from 7.5% in September, as energy prices ease, but core is projected to be steady at 5.3%.
  • Thailand publishes October customs trade data on Wednesday, which is expected to show a widening in the trade deficit to US$1.4bn from US$0.85bn last month. Annual rates in both export and import growth should slow.
  • The Bank of Korea meets on Thursday and is widely expected to increase rates by a smaller 25bp to 3.25%, after 50bp at the last meeting, which would bring it in line with the Fed funds. Only one analyst out of the 15 surveyed by Bloomberg expects a different outcome with a 50bp move.
  • On Friday, Malaysian CPI data for October is published and is expected to moderate to 3.9% y/y from 4.5% last month.

    Cumulative policy rate changes in Asia (bp)

Keep reading...Show less