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Week Ahead: Focus On Brazil Economic Activity And Banxico Minutes

LATAM
  • Brazil activity data on Monday and Thursday’s Banxico minutes are the highlights of next week. Mexico bi-weekly CPI data will also cross, alongside December retail sales and the final reading of Q4 GDP.
    • Brazil economic activity is expected to have risen by 0.75% m/m in December (vs. +0.01% prior). Annual growth, however, looks set to slow to +0.5% y/y, from +2.19%.
    • On Tuesday, the BCB will publish its weekly economist survey, while in Mexico the Banamex survey of economists will also be released. Elsewhere, Colombia industrial and retail confidence for January and Argentina January trade data will cross.
    • Mexico December retail sales data are scheduled for Wednesday, with sales having risen by 2.7% y/y in November.
    • On Thursday, Mexico final Q4 GDP data and bi-weekly CPI will be released. Analysts expect headline CPI inflation to moderate to 4.80% y/y, from 4.87%, in the first half of February. Banxico will also publish the minutes to its recent policy meeting, where it opened the door to a potential March rate cut. Elsewhere, Argentina economic activity for December will cross and Uruguay announces its latest interest rate decision.
    • Chile January PPI and Mexico Q4 current account are in the docket on Friday. Peru will also publish Q4 GDP data, with analysts expecting the economy to have shrunk by 0.3% y/y (vs. -1.0% prior).
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