Week ahead includes September.......>

US DATA PREVIEW: Week ahead includes September retail sales early Monday and the

minutes from the September 25-26 FOMC Wednesday afternoon amid otherwise muted

Fed speaker events. No note or bond auctions in the week ahead, though the

Treasury will announce the size of the following week's 2-, 5- and 7Y auctions

on Thursday, October 18. The pace of corporate supply should start to pick up

again as financial stocks work through the earnings calendar.

- On tap today, Retail sales (0.6%); Empire Manufacturing Index (20.0) and

business inventories (0.6%).

-RBS/NatWest economists expect "solid" retail sales figures "helped by a bounce

in auto sales). Manufacturing measures (industrial production, Empire State and

Philly Fed surveys) should also show continued resilience in the factory sector

heading into Q4."

- Morgan Stanley economists note that "with auto sales up 2.4%, gas station

sales up 0.8, and sales at home improvement stores up 0.5%, we forecast a 0.7%

rise in headline retail sales."