NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 605; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 102

BoE Data Watch

RBA Data Watch

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Weekly Claims Miss, Strong Core PCE Weighs on Tsys, 7Y Sale In-Line

US TSYS
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
  • Treasury futures held weaker levels after this morning's lower than expected weekly claims and strong core PCE (3.7% vs. 3.4% est) saw chances of a rate cut in 2024 evaporate.
  • Jobless claims printed a seasonally adjusted 207k (cons 215k) in the week to Apr 20 after an unrevised 212k. Meanwhile, Real GDP was softer than expected in Q1 at 1.6% (cons 2.5) after 3.4% in Q4 (no revisions in this advance release), and Pending home sales were stronger than expected in March as they increased 3.4% M/M (cons 0.4) after 1.6% in Feb.
  • Projected rate cut pricing vs. pre-data levels: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -2.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -8.9% from -16.2% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -2.9bp at 5.300%. July'24 cumulative at -8.6bp from -12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp from -24.4bp.
  • Little reaction in Tsys futures (TYM4 107-13.5 last) after the $44B 7Y note auction (91282CKN0) in line with WI of 4.716%; bid-to-cover slips to the lowest since November at 2.48x vs. 2.61x last month.
  • Focus turns to Friday's Data Calendar: Personal Income/Spending, UofM Sentiment, while May Treasury options expire.
178 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Treasury futures held weaker levels after this morning's lower than expected weekly claims and strong core PCE (3.7% vs. 3.4% est) saw chances of a rate cut in 2024 evaporate.
  • Jobless claims printed a seasonally adjusted 207k (cons 215k) in the week to Apr 20 after an unrevised 212k. Meanwhile, Real GDP was softer than expected in Q1 at 1.6% (cons 2.5) after 3.4% in Q4 (no revisions in this advance release), and Pending home sales were stronger than expected in March as they increased 3.4% M/M (cons 0.4) after 1.6% in Feb.
  • Projected rate cut pricing vs. pre-data levels: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -2.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -8.9% from -16.2% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -2.9bp at 5.300%. July'24 cumulative at -8.6bp from -12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp from -24.4bp.
  • Little reaction in Tsys futures (TYM4 107-13.5 last) after the $44B 7Y note auction (91282CKN0) in line with WI of 4.716%; bid-to-cover slips to the lowest since November at 2.48x vs. 2.61x last month.
  • Focus turns to Friday's Data Calendar: Personal Income/Spending, UofM Sentiment, while May Treasury options expire.