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Weekly Losses Trimmed, But Only Marginally, Demand Concerns Weighing


Brent crude has drifted higher versus Thursday closing levels in NY. We were last near $80.50/bbl, a further gain of 0.60%, after Thursday's +0.60% rise. This only unwinds earlier losses in the week marginally though. At this stage we are still tracking 5.20% lower, which would be the 3rd straight week of losses for the benchmark. WTI was last just above $76.15/bbl, having followed a similar trajectory.

  • As risks of a wider Middle East conflict have fallen, demand concerns have become more prominent. This week's China data has been a concern (even with higher oil import volumes). Continued consumer spending headwinds was hihglihgted by a PBoC official today.
  • Bloomberg has also reported that Asia diesel spreads are turning more bearish on rising supply (see this link for more details).
  • Elsewhere, the WTI prompt month time-spread has flattened and is oscillating between a shallow contango and shallow backwardation. Weak prompt demand, record US output and expectations of building Cushing stocks are weighing on the prompt and pushing the market into contango.
  • For Brent, this week's low sits at $79.20/bbl, with all key EMAs back above $85/bbl.
  • Looking ahead, on Monday OPEC publishes its monthly oil report. IEA publishes its monthly report on Tuesday, US CPI is out on Tuesday as well, while China activity figures print on Wednesday.

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