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Wells Fargo Now Sees 75bp Hike, Big Rise in 2022-23 Dots

FED

Wells Fargo has upped its June FOMC rate hike call to 75bp from 50bp, with the higher-than-expected May CPI print reinforced by Monday's press reports "which likely were confirmed by off-the-record comments by Fed officials... seem designed to re-calibrate market expectations regarding the potential magnitude of the rate hike."

  • The Fed could opt for 50bp, though 75bp far more likely. If only 50bp, Powell and the Dot Plot would signal more aggressive tightening.
  • Wells sees June's 2022 median Fed funds dot at 3.4%, reaching 4.1% by end-2023, falling all the way to 3.1% in 2024. (Previously they'd seen 2.9% 3.4%, and 2.8% for those years, respectively.)
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