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Wells Fargo See ISM Services Showing Tailwinds Are Beginning to Fade

DATA REACT
  • Wells Fargo write that the ISM Services Index release earlier today is illustrative of the fiscal and reopening tailwinds beginning to fade for the US economy, but is consistent with activity remaining hot this summer.
  • They write that supply issues, particularly for labor, continued to restrain the overall pace of growth, and that supply-chain bottlenecks are more than just an issue for manufacturers.
  • There are nascent signs that bottlenecks may be coming to a head and are starting what WF expect to be a long process of normalizing.
  • WF ad that the biggest drag on the June's composite reading came from employment. The decline in hiring continues to be due to a lack of qualified supply and frictions working themselves out as demand for hiring has come roaring back and workers explore their options.
  • All but one industry - agriculture - reported higher prices paid during the month. They pick out that a respondent from the mining industry noted "starting to see a lot of commodity-price increases," while a transportation & warehousing purchasing manager noted "wages have risen at an unprecedented rate...We are expecting a long-term effect on pricing of services." In other words, WF write, inflation pressures are set to remain elevated.
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