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US VIEW: Wells Fargo strategists Boris Rjavinski and Zachary Griffiths said that
the "U.S. long-term fiscal standing becomes more suspect" as "many signs point
to a worsening budget deficit."
- "The WFS economics team calls for the deficit to hit $750 billion in 2018,
then reach $900 billion in 2019," they said. "Moreover, there are significant
upside risks to this already worrisome baseline view. We still expect tax reform
to take place in early 2018, with the statutory corporate tax rate falling from
35% and individual tax cuts to go along with it."
- They add that "the ambitious tax reform plans announced by the White House and
Republican leaders in Congress potentially could add $2 trillion to the
government deficit over 10 years, even without an infrastructure spending
package. Although a second-order effect, the government's debt service cost may
rise meaningfully driven by the combination of growing debt and higher yields.
It is enough to make fiscal hawks lose sleep."