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US TSYS/TIPS: Wells Fargo's Rjavinski and Griffiths add on potential 2018
inflation surprises: "Fewer generic drugs could cause an upward surprise in
medical commodities to the tune of 0.2%-0.3% at the CPI level," they said. "This
component has been highly volatile in recent years, so the initial reaction may
be contained in front-end TIPS. However, if the rampup in drug costs does not
begin to fade, mkts may look for signs of longer- term structural change.
Investors with bullish lg-term outlk on inflations should extend into 10-30y
sector in breakevens or real yields."
- They said US rents may surprise "on downside if multifamily supply continues
to outstrip demand while affordability declines. This could turn cause an
overall bearish sentiment turn, given heightened importance of housing to the
economy. Look to underweight breakevens and implementing breakeven steepeners to
profit from broad bearish moves in TIPS."
- They added hotel supply growth plus "weak demand cd become another downside
concern in 2018" but won't be "longer-term trend;" they urge avoid frontend TIPS
in "wake of falling lodging away from home prices."