Westpac Card Tracker Index Shows Resilience, With Usual Seasonal Swings

Westpac note that their Card Tracker Index “lifted strongly in the lead-in to Christmas, falling back sharply over the last week of Dec and first week of Jan but with a drop that looks to be largely in line with that seen in previous years."

• “Note that while our measure excludes month to month seasonal shifts it is not yet possible to precisely adjust for week-to-week seasonal variations, especially the very sharp weekly swings seen around the Christmas-New Year period.”
• “The wash-up from the Christmas period shows strong results for the major sales periods. Card activity in non-food discretionary goods showed peak Christmas spend up 15-20% on last year while peak hospitality spend was up 11%. Other categories have been more subdued with a flat result for ‘basic food’ and seasonal weakness affecting health and education. Travel spend also saw a bit of a lull, although this tends to be paid for in advance of trips, the high share of international transactions suggesting many Australians headed abroad over the holiday period.”
• “The bottom line though is that despite sharply higher interest rates and very weak sentiment, consumers have still been spending strongly through the Christmas-New Year period with underlying momentum showing only a very mild impact from these wider pressures to date."