Westpac Expect At Least “Sound” Employment Growth And Tick Lower In Unemployment

Westpac note that “while labour market indicators from both business and household surveys, along with job ads, have eased a bit over the past few months they remain at very robust levels consistent with at least sound employment growth. And the November update from Weekly Payrolls suggests jobs growth bounce back in the month. Our forecast 27K rise in employment should hold the three-month average increase around 20K.”

• “There continues to be a pickup in the growth of the working age population which lifted from 0.6%yr last December to 1.2%yr in October. Prior to Covid annual growth in the working age population peaked at 1.7%yr in 2018/2019 due to robust immigration. Holding participation at 66.5% and the rate of growth in the working age population steady this should see a 17K increase in the labour force in October. As such, our 27K forecast increase in employment will be enough to take the unemployment rate down to 3.3%.”