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Westpac Lead Index Signals Soft But Stabilising Growth

AUSTRALIA DATA

Westpac’s leading index for February rose 0.08% m/m to be flat up from -0.2% on the 6-month annualised basis, which leads detrended growth by 3 to 9 months. The indicator continues to signal sub-trend but stabilising growth into the second half of this year. The soft growth seen at the end of 2023 appears to have continued into H1 2024. Westpac believes that the RBA is on hold for now.

  • Higher commodity prices have driven the improvement in the 6-month rate but they may have turned, especially iron ore. Equities, yield spread and consumer confidence have made small positive contributions while US IP, hours worked and dwelling approvals have contracted.
Australia Westpac lead indicator vs GDP %

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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