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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The Westpac leading index for July was flat on the month after rising 0.1%. This has left annualised 6-month growth at -0.6%, which leads activity relative to trend by 3 to 9 months, and suggests that growth will likely remain below trend in H1 2024. This measure has been negative since July 2022 and averaged -0.73% in the last year but appears to have stabilised. Westpac is forecasting GDP growth of 1% in 2023 improving slightly to 1.4% in 2024.
- In terms of the index’ components, hours worked, yield spread and less pessimistic unemployment expectations all made positive contributions. Westpac notes that without the two labour market components, the index would be around -1%.
- Commodity prices are now weighing on the leading indicator as well as dwelling approvals and equities.
- Westpac believes that 4.1% is the cycle peak in the RBA cash rate.
Australia Westpac lead index vs real GDP %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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