Westpac Look For Y/Y CPI To Peak In Q4

Westpac note that “the CPI lifted 1.8% in Q3, greater than the market’s 1.6% forecast. The main surprise was the +3.2% jump in electricity prices.”

• “The ABS estimates that excluding the rebates electricity prices would have risen 15.6% in the quarter. The annual pace lifted from 6.1% to 7.3%, the fastest pace since June 1990 and significantly faster than the 5.0% pace at the peak of the mining boom.”
• “Westpac is forecasting 1.5% rise in Q4 boosting the annual pace 0.1ppt to 7.4% which is our forecast peak for the current cycle.”
• “The reasons behind the step down from 1.8%qtr print in Q3 are the ongoing moderation in pace of price increases for food, clothing & footwear, new dwellings and household contents & services. The Trimmed Mean is forecast to lift 1.6%, a moderation from the 1.8% gain in Q3. The annual pace for the Trimmed Mean is set to lift to 6.6%yr, from 6.1%yr.”