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(M2) Correction Extends


Late Session Rebound


(M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play


(M2) Gains Still Considered Corrective

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FOREX: Westpac note that "AUD has played a familiar role in recent weeks, highly
positively correlated with global risk sentiment and a high beta anti-USD play,
underperforming other currencies against the US dollar from February into late
March, then outperforming markedly in April as equity markets rebounded sharply.
Official Chinese data indicates that the economic damage from Covid-19 was
heavily concentrated in January and February, followed by a sharp rebound in
March, at least in industrial activity. Further growth would of course benefit
both China and Australia, whose iron ore exports to China surged in March. The
yuan has been supported by the PBoC not opting for the ultra-expansionary
monetary policy of most central banks and by global travel restrictions which
shrink China's services deficit. Policymakers are choosing currency stability
over export competitiveness. It is not clear that Australia's encouraging
coronavirus case trend will translate to much fresh support for A$ if risk
appetite deteriorates over coming weeks in what will be a devastating quarter
for the global economy. We see AUD/CNY risks back towards 4.35-4.40 multi-week."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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