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Free AccessWestpac write "3yr yields have moved...>
AUSSIE BONDS: Westpac write "3yr yields have moved further through cash & 10yr
bond yields have recorded their lowest ever levels. There is a full 25bp rate
cut factored-in for August & almost another cut expected in the 6 months beyond.
Those valuations were consolidated during a week that the unemployment rate fell
< 5%. So there is clearly a powerful tailwind behind exp. for lower rates,
however, we think we need to be careful interpreting some of last week's price
action e.g. a sig. catalyst for the front-end was covering of shorts from those
that had been holding speculative positions based on exp. of a March turn. One
of the reasons behind that position covering was the RBA Minutes. Specifically,
the market focused on line that detailed a presentation on repo & FX swaps
markets. That was seen by some as the initial signal that the RBA are prepared
to undertake measures to reduce funding pressures on banks ahead of delivering
rate cuts later in the year. Near term valuations will be dominated by U.S.
outcomes. Medium term, despite having ~2 rate cuts in the forward profile, we
think there is scope for 3yr bonds to rally. That would be supported by the view
that global yields will remain lower for longer, with inflation exp. minimal."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.