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AUSSIE BONDS: Westpac write that "with the global re-pricing of a patient Fed
and BoC last week pausing and signalling a more cautious outlook (having hiked
thrice in '18, as at early Dec, markets had been ~70% priced for a hike at the
Jan BoC meeting) markets are questioning the RBA's reaction function. House
prices continue their correction, November dwelling approvals data warns of a
second down leg and recent rate rises from smaller lenders all suggest bonds
will trade rich for some time to come. Employment and CPI at the end of the
month will be the key data to watch, but with RBA still firmly on hold, we see
value in paying near dated OIS. 3 & 10yr bond yields have broken through their
2018 ranges. This move has been aided by both a repricing in UST markets, as
well as market expectation for RBA policy path (50% chance of a cut by
end-2019). As we maintain our long-held view that the RBA will remain on hold
through 2019 and 2020, we are bearish AU yields at these levels. However, with a
continued uncertainty around the US Government shutdown and Brexit, we do not
expect a bearish correction in the very near term."