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Westpac's G10 FX model "continues to build....>

FOREX
FOREX: Westpac's G10 FX model "continues to build a long exposure to AUD,
lifting it to 8% of the portfolio. The AU-US 10yr spread has stabilised at -60bp
to -70bp after pushing out relentlessly against AUD through 2019Q1 and last week
saw a crop of better than expected data including consumer sentiment, retail
sales and building approvals, lifting our AUD growth signal. The model is short
USD for another week, that position looking increasingly entrenched in its
eleventh consecutive week. The model is negative USD even though the USD enjoys
the strongest growth and yield signals across the G10. Valuation is increasingly
the bigger USD negative, both on a long term PPP basis (after years of USD
strength) as well as on a short term fair value basis, the USD resilient in the
face of a slight loss of yield support, higher commodity prices and low
volatility."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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