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What Happened With Brazil Protests This Weekend?

BRAZIL
  • Supporters of ousted President Bolsonaro breached security at the Presidential Palace, Congress as well as the Supreme Court in protest against Lula’s leadership. The sites were reportedly ‘ransacked’ before security forces were able to regain control, with hundreds of arrests proceeding through the night.
  • The government have declared a state of emergency until end-January, meaning military police take the lead on security functions across Brasilia. Meanwhile, a right-wing lawmaker have been placed on forced leave for 90 days on suspicion of involvement in the unrest.
  • Since the situation has stabilised, Lula claimed he will find the ‘financial backers’ of the protests, while former President Bolsonaro (from the USA) claimed the protests were not within the rules, comparing the action to left-wing protests in 2013 and 2017.
  • Gauging the market impact is difficult with most assets yet to open. Implied vols for USDBRL have ticked higher in an illiquid market (1m at around 20 points vs Friday’s 19.3 point close), but activity should pick up through the European morning. BRL NDF forward outrights may also give an indication of pressure on the currency, but are yet to give an opening print.
  • A handful of Brazil ETFs trading across Europe, London and the US will be watched at their respective opens for the market fallout. The BRL opens at 1200GMT/0700ET, while local equities open an hour later at 1300GMT/0800ET.
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