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What have we learnt from the TSC so far?

BOE
  • Overall we have learnt little new from Bailey, Dhingra or Greene relative to their comments last week.
  • The most notable news is that Broadbent said in his annual report that the MPR forecast "doesn’t rule out a policy easing at some point this year." He elaborated little more on the timing, but this was still enough to help SONIA futures outperform over the past hour with a flattening of the Whites and Reds / longer through the curve up to 8.5 ticks higher today (versus Euribor futures up to 3.5 ticks higher and SOFR futures up to 5.0 ticks higher).
  • In terms of meeting-by-meeting pricing, markets now price around 4bp of cuts for May, 14bp cumulatively by June, 30bp by August and 74bp by year-end.
  • The MNI Markets team looks for the probability of a first cut in May further to around 15%, a 30% probability of a first cut in June, a 40% probability of a first cut in August and a 15% probability of the first cut being delayed further.
  • So market pricing is currently pricing slightly more in terms of the first cut, but we think that market pricing by year-end is looking broadly appropriate.
  • Bailey also said that the Bernanke report is due in April (more specific than the Spring commitment previously noted).
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