MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees "Modest" Q2 EZ Growth Driven By Services

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

MNI BRIEF: China June M2 SlowsTo Record Low For Third Month

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Export Growth Slows In June

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 584; OIL RIGS 478; GAS RIGS 100

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.10B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

What have we learnt from the TSC so far?

BOE
  • Overall we have learnt little new from Bailey, Dhingra or Greene relative to their comments last week.
  • The most notable news is that Broadbent said in his annual report that the MPR forecast "doesn’t rule out a policy easing at some point this year." He elaborated little more on the timing, but this was still enough to help SONIA futures outperform over the past hour with a flattening of the Whites and Reds / longer through the curve up to 8.5 ticks higher today (versus Euribor futures up to 3.5 ticks higher and SOFR futures up to 5.0 ticks higher).
  • In terms of meeting-by-meeting pricing, markets now price around 4bp of cuts for May, 14bp cumulatively by June, 30bp by August and 74bp by year-end.
  • The MNI Markets team looks for the probability of a first cut in May further to around 15%, a 30% probability of a first cut in June, a 40% probability of a first cut in August and a 15% probability of the first cut being delayed further.
  • So market pricing is currently pricing slightly more in terms of the first cut, but we think that market pricing by year-end is looking broadly appropriate.
  • Bailey also said that the Bernanke report is due in April (more specific than the Spring commitment previously noted).
Homepagemarkets-real-timeCreditBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.