What's Expected In Today's Decision: Statement Guidance And Dissents (2/2)

The main focus in the June Statement is any potential change in rate guidance. As part of the expected "hawkish hold", this is not expected to change (emphasis is ours):

• "The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."
• Recall, that language replaced "anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate" as of the May statement. Some analysts see potential changes this time such as:
• New language, per Barclays: May well include a new sentence indicating the FOMC intends to raise rates more slowly. But do not expect an explicit mention of “additional increases in the target range” or “slowing in the pace of increases,” as in recent hiking cycles.
• Date-based rather than data-dependent language, per BofA, thus emphasizing the "skip" nature of this decision: "decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate to at 5 to 5-1/4 percent for now", or "for the time being", or "at this meeting".

• None are expected, though nobody would be surprised if we saw one or two, underlining the "hawkish" nature of the hold. As our Policy team noted in their Jun 1 story (“MNI POLICY: Fed Most Divided Since Start Of Hikes, More Loom”, the most likely dissenting voters if any would be Kashkari/Logan (dissenting against a hold) or Harker/Goolsbee (dissenting against a hike).