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What to watch (2/2)

OUTLOOK
  • For the BOE, markets price in around 45bp for this week's hike with analysts widely expecting 50bp (a few look for 25bp). Assuming a 50bp hike, the focus will be on the forward guidance and whether the BOE maintains it's conditional "forceful" language or down steps to something more like "limited and gradual increases". The terminal rate is seen around 95bp above current rates including this week's hike.
  • For the ECB, markets price 53bp with analysts also looking for 50bp. The questions here will be what the ECB communicates about future policy (given some division among ECB GC members' speeches recently and sources pieces) and whether there is any more clarity given on QT.
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