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MARKET INSIGHT
Tsys trading weaker, near middle of the overnight range at the moment, carry-over sell interest after StL Fed Bullard said starting in March, four rate hikes likely this year, citing rising inflation in a WSJ interview late Wednesday. Yield curves rebounded.
  • This after markets took elevated CPI data that confirmed inflation exp (7.0% YoY, Core 5.5%) in stride as not as bad as feared. Dec PPI this morning (0.8% prior, 0.4% est); YoY (9.6% prior, 9.8% est) with 10 handle possible.
  • More dealers following suit, Wells Fargo ups estimate from two to four, joining Barclays, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs call for March lift-off.
  • Fed Gov Lael Brainard Senate nomination hearing and Fed Barkin, Evans on tap ahead Fed blackout late Friday.
  • Pres Biden will meet with Senate Democrats in the the Kennedy Caucus Room at 1300ET, Punchbowl.
  • US Tsy 30Y Bond auction reopen (912810TB4) after 3- and 10Y sales both tailed this week.
  • Jan Eurodollar options expire Friday (extended US holiday weekend: MLK holiday Monday), Feb Tsy options expire next week Friday. Implieds have softened after CPI data, likely continue if PPI in-line. Note VIX up slightly at the moment +.31 at 17.93.
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