MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: SWEDEN NOV UNEMPLOYMENT 7.4%

MNI: UK OCT TRADE BALANCE GBP -3.72BN

MNI: UK OCT CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT -0.4% MM, +0.4% 3M3M, -0.7% YY

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Ahead of this week's ECB and BOE meetings, the focus this morning will be on inflation. We are due to receive German state CPI data throughout the session with the German national print due at 13:00GMT. Before then we will receive Spanish HICP at 8:00GMT.
  • We are also due a number of first release Q4 GDP prints this morning, most notably Italy and the pan-Eurozone prints, both at 10:00GMT. This follows up better than expected French and Spanish prints on Friday and a weaker than expected German print.
  • There has been a tightening of BTP-Bund spreads of about 10bp in 10-year space this morning, with Sergio Mattarella being reelected as Italian President, which means its likely Draghi remains as PM - a situation which is seen as leading to greater stability going forward.
  • The weekend also saw the Socialist Party (PS) win an outright majority - removing reliance on the far-left. This is also seen as a positive and Portuguese 10-year spreads to Bunds are 3.0bp tighter on the day.
  • These political events have also helped drive sentiment across EGB peripherals with other spreads also tightening this morning.
  • The only notable US data today will be the MNI Chicago Business Barometer and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index.
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