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What to Watch: Picking Up the Pieces Following Fri Rout

MARKET INSIGHT

US FI markets clawing back some ground after perhaps leaning a bit too far over it's skis after Fri's strong Jan jobs gain of +467k vs. +125k est (total up-revisions of +709k for Nov-Dec). 30YY gained 8bp to 2.2312%; 10YY +10bp to 1.9302%.
Markets have quiet start to next week, dearth of scheduled Fed speakers until Fed Gov Bowman and Cleveland Fed Pres Mester at separate events Wed, with main focus on Jan CPI on Thursday (0.4% median est vs. 0.5% prior; 7.2% YoY est).

  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • Feb-7 1130 US Tsy $60B 13W, $51B 26W bill auctions
  • Feb-7 1500 Consumer Credit ($39.991B, $25.000B)
  • Gradual pick-up Tuesday:
  • Feb-8 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (98.9, 97.5)
  • Feb-8 0830 Trade Balance (-$80.2B, -$83.0B)
  • Feb-8 1030 NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 22.5Y-30Y, appr $1.825B
  • Feb-8 1300 US Tsy $50B 3Y Note auction (91282CDZ1)
On CPI, Morgan Stanley economists "forecast core CPI inflation in January increased 0.42%M after a 0.55% increase in December, raising the year-over-year rate to 5.9% from 5.5%. We see core goods inflation rising firmly by 0.9% on the month, led by continued gains in used car prices and some upside in apparel prices, while new car prices should post continued gains as well."
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