What to watch

Russia-Ukraine headlines again likely to be the main catalyst for markets today. Some positive follow through to Asian markets and again this morning in early morning European trading, but markets still a little apprehensive about the situation and recoveries in equity markets are a little subdued. Eurodollar futures are a little lower, but Euribor and SONIA futures are higher on the day.

• On the data calendar we have already received UK CPI (a tenth higher than expected, but partly driven by clothing which could show a reversal next month). Later today we will receive US retail sales data (13:30) alongside Canadian inflation data and later US industrial production data.
• For Canadian inflation, consensus is for headline to have held steady at 4.8% Y/Y (average 4.85%) on a non-seasonally adjusted increase of 0.6% M/M, but with reasonable dispersion within the range of 13 estimates. The Bank of Canada expect headline inflation "to remain close to 5% over the first half of 2022." For our full Canada CPI preview see part 1 and part 2.
• We will also receive the FOMC Minutes later with focus on any views on the likelihood of a 50bp March hike and the pace of tightening in the near-term as well as further details on the expectations for balance sheet roll-off.