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CPI Preview (1/2)

CANADA
  • CPI inflation for January is released at 0830ET tomorrow.
  • Consensus is for headline to have held steady at 4.8% Y/Y (average 4.85%) on a non-seasonally adjusted increase of 0.6% M/M, but with reasonable dispersion within the range of 13 estimates.
  • The average of the key core measures could edge up on rounding from 2.9% to 3.0% Y/Y after jumping two tenths in Dec, with 1 of 3 higher and the other 2 unchanged (but a very small survey). This would hit the top of the 1-3% target range, although the BOC pushed back against using these measures as indicators of economic slack in the Jan MPR.
  • BOC expected path: Headline CPI is forecast “to remain close to 5% over the first half of 2022” due to supply constraints plus high energy prices and rising food costs. They see CPI easing “to about 3% by the end of 2022 as these pressures dissipate”.

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