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What to Watch: Geopolitical Tail Risk Remains

MARKET INSIGHT
Rates trading weaker -- continued decline carry over from late Thursday as broader markets assessed Russia invasion of Ukraine. Early panic (Stocks sold off, Gold traded up appr $50/oz, WTI crude topped $100.0/bbl briefly) stabilized in second half (as details of sanctions and US/allied troop deployment (none to Ukraine proper) emerged.
  • Current tone can change on a dime and markets will be watching Russia/Ukraine headlines closely, weighing rhetoric from reality.
  • Economic data drop coming up at 0830ET:
    • Durable Goods Orders (-0.7%, 1.0%); Ex Transportation (0.6%, 0.4%)
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.3%, 0.3%)
    • Personal Income (0.3%, -0.3%)
    • Personal Spending (-0.6%, 1.6%)
    • Real Personal Spending(-1.0%, 1.2%)
    • PCE Deflator MoM (0.4%, 0.6%); YoY (5.8%, 6.0%)
    • At 1000ET
    • Pending Home Sales MoM (-3.8%, -0.5%); YoY -6.6%, -0.8%)
    • U. of Mich. Sentiment (61.7, 61.7)
    • At 1030ET: NY Fed buy operation carried over from Thursday due to technical issues. Operation: Tsy 0Y-22.5Y, appr $6.225B
  • No Fed speakers scheduled at the moment.
  • Fox News has quoted White House sources saying that President Biden has made his selection for the Supreme Court and an announcement is expected today.
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