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MARKET INSIGHT

After yesterday's ECB meeting we saw Bunds move further above their lows with core fixed income in general generally moving higher in the Asia session. Treasuries and Bunds are off their overnight highs and within yesterday's ranges. Risk sentiment has been affected by reports of the Russian shelling of a Ukrainian facility with an experimental nuclear reactor and also by weakness in equity markets which is partly due to US regulatory scrutiny on Chinese tech companies.

  • We have already had UK monthly activity data released, with GDP data for January better than expected and the gains broad-based. There may be some focus on the BOE/Kantar Inflation Attitudes Survey (due for release at 9:30GMT / 10:30CET). There are likely to be asymptomatic risks to BOE pricing due to the survey being conducted in February before commodity prices took their latest march higher due to the Ukraine conflict. Higher inflation expectations are likely to have a greater impact, while lower inflation expectations are likely to be largely dismissed.
  • Across the pond, we have Candian labour market data and US Michigan confidence data. For the latter, the market will focus on the inflation expectations component.
  • We may also hear from more ECB speakers, with sources stories released overnight hinting to there only being a few voices that did not want to speed up tapering.

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