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  • Fallout from the first round of the French election is driving markets in early trading. Macron and Le Pen have made it through to the second round. Every opinion poll for the second round puts Macron ahead of Le Pen, which helped Bunds move lower and the euro higher in early Asian trading. (Indeed, we saw cycle highs for yields across the UST curve and cycle lows for both Bund and UST futures overnight). However, the margin of victory the polls predict is still uncomfortably close.
  • We have already seen UK GDP data for February come in weaker than expected this morning (driven by disappointing manufacturing and construction data) but that had little impact on UK markets, particularly given the more important labour market data due tomorrow and inflation data due Wednesday.
  • Norwegian inflation data disappointed this morning, too, and EURNOK is a little higher on the day (but not substantially). The miss was notable, but is probably still not enough to derail the Norges Bank's next hike from occurring in May.
  • Looking ahead there is little more on the data calendar for today with tomorrow's US CPI print and Thursday's ECB meeting the highlights for the remainder of the week. Today we do see a slew of Fed speakers, however, with Bostic, Bowman, Waller and Evans.

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