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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • With the Tokyo holiday, cash UST markets have been closed overnight while liquidity has been pretty stunted in core bond futures. Bund and Treasury futures sit a little above yesterday's lows while the dollar is off of yesterday's high but today is another big data day, as well as month-end.
  • After yesterday's softer-than-expected Spanish inflation and higher than expected German inflation, we receive French inflation data at 7:45BST / 8:45CET and then the Eurozone / Italian prints at 10:00BST / 11:00CET. These have the potential to set the tone for markets at least through the European morning session.
  • In addition this morning, we have already had a slightly disappointing first release of French Q1 GDP and we are due to receive first release Q1 GDP prints from most of the other major Eurozone countries (including the Eurozone aggregate print at 10:00BST / 11:00CET). This will be of secondary importance to inflation, but will still be watched by the market.
  • Turning to the afternoon, we then have US PCE, personal income / spending, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer and the final print of Michigan confidence.
  • As we noted, today is also the last day of the month, so amid all of the event risk there are likely to be rebalancing flows ahead of what is a UK long weekend, with UK markets due to be closed Monday (which is likely to impact liquidity across other European markets).
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