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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Core fixed income continued its descent lower through the Asian session with UST cash markets reopening and 10-year UST yields now up over 10bp at writing compared to Friday's close.
  • The main event of the day will continued release of European inflation prints. After yesterday's 2 tenth upside surprise to Spanish HICP and 6 tenth upside surprise to German HICP, we will receive French data at 7:45BST / 8:45CET ahead of Eurozone and Italian data at 10:00BST / 11:00CET. The Bloomberg consensus looks for Eurozone HICP at 7.8%Y/Y, up from 7.5%Y/Y previously but this is a stale number largely compiled before yesterday's surprises. Assuming there are no major downside surprises in the French data, the market will be positioned for at least am 8.0%Y/Y print after yesterday's beats.
  • Elsewhere this morning we also have the release of the FQ2 gilt operations calendar at 7:30BST, see our summary of the consultation write up here. The main UK data outside of this will be money supply / bank lending data.
  • In addition we will receive final Q1 GDP print from countries including France and Italy.
  • Today will also see a meeting between Powell and Biden meeting (Biden has laid out his inflation "plan" in a WSJ opinion piece), with TsySec Yellen also set to join that particular gathering. While the data highlights in the US include the MNI Chicago Business Barometer and Conference Board consumer confidence.
  • Finally, it's just worth noting that the EU did manage to agree a new set of sanctions against Russia including banning non-pipeline oil flows.
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