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What to Watch: Data For Policy Clues

LOOK AHEAD
New month underway, carry-over weakness in Tsys after month end rebalancing saw futures gap lower late Wednesday. Inside range at the moment, 30YY tapped 3.3184% high during Asia hours.
  • While short end comes back under pressure on 75bp hike speculation (ECB next week, FOMC on Sep 21), yield curves actually extending steeper (2s10s +2.613 at -27.827, Aug 25 level) as the "higher for longer" rate mantra to contain burgeoning inflation takes hold.
  • Markets eager for Fri's August employment data (+300k est vs. +528k prior) to help gauge level of Fed hawkishness. In the meantime, data flurry kicks off at 0830ET:
    • Initial Jobless Claims (243k, 247k); Continuing Claims (1.415M, 1.440M)
    • Nonfarm Productivity (-4.6%, -4.3%); Unit Labor Costs (10.8%, 10.6%)
    • Followed by Global US Manufacturing PMI (51.3, 51.3) at 0945ET
    • Construction Spending MoM (-1.1%, -0.3%) at 1000ET
    • ISMs at 1000ET: Mfg (52.8, 51.9), Prices Paid (60.0, 55.5), New Orders (48.0, --), Employment (49.9, --)
  • US Tsy auctions: $50B 4W, $45B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
  • Fed Speak: Atl Fed Bostic Georgia Fintech Academy, No text, Q&A
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