MNI INTERVIEW2: Riksbank Sales Boosting Liquidity - Debt Head

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, Dec 5

MNI: UK NOVEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 55.2 (FCST: 53.5); OCT 54.3

MNI BRIEF: China Construction Output Slows In November

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY153 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1879 Thurs; -1.82% Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI: EUROZONE OCT RETAIL SALES -0.5% M/M, +1.9% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE NOVEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.7 OCT 43.0

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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OUTLOOK
  • The FOMC meeting is the clear highlight of the day ahead. Markets are pricing in 75bp and sell-side analysts are unanimous in looking for a 75bp hike this week. The signaling of future moves is therefore likely to be the bigger market mover. A step-down to a 50bp hike in December looks like the path of least resistance for now – the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view. In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement – but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent. If there are substantive changes to the Statement, the risks are almost certainly that they lean dovish, with either an overt nod to slowing the pace of increases, or a reference to the impact of cumulative hikes on the economy. For the full MNI Fed Preview click here.
  • On the data front we will receive final manufacturing PMI prints across the Eurozone this morning as well as German unemployment data. We will also receive ADP employment data ahead of the employment report which is due Friday.
  • On the speaker front (outside of the FOMC presser) we will also hear from ECB's Makhoulf, Villeroy and Nagel.
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