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MNI Fed Preview - November 2022: Keeping Year-End Options Open

MNI Fed Preview - November 2022: Keeping Year-End Options Open

MNI Fed Preview - November 2022: Keeping Year-End Options Open

Note to readers: MNI’s Fed Preview was originally published Oct 28 – this Oct 31 update includes summaries of sell-side analyst previews for the meeting (see page 28 of this document).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The November FOMC meeting is mainly about the message the Fed wants to send about its plans for December.
  • A 4th consecutive 75bp hike is assured this time. A step-down to a 50bp hike at the following meeting looks like the path of least resistance for now – the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view.
  • In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement – but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent.
  • If there are substantive changes to the Statement, the risks are almost certainly that they lean dovish, with either an overt nod to slowing the pace of increases, or a reference to the impact of cumulative hikes on the economy.


FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevNovember2022UPDATEWANALYSTS.pdf

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